Prospective modeled-cost evidence / frozen D1 rule

Prospective D1 Alpha Ledger

collecting evidence

This append-only ledger measures the frozen BTCUSD + ETHUSD D1 slow-gate candidate only from its first post-deployment snapshot. It starts flat, never backfills a historical position, and compares liquidation-adjusted modeled NAV with a same-cost 50/50 buy-and-hold benchmark.

Not the current strategy. The rule is frozen and cannot be optimized after prospective outcomes arrive. Even a cleared gate produces only “eligible for review”; promotion requires a separate owner decision and cannot delete or relabel the losing historical archive.

Predeclared minimum / return-independent

Observation gate

PROMOTION: NOT-PROMOTED

Calendar daysOPEN

5 / 365

Consecutive snapshotsOPEN

6 / 365

Closed sleeve tradesOPEN

0 / 12

Unresolved cadence gapsPASS

0 / 0

All four observation checks plus fingerprint and hash-chain integrity must pass before returns are judged. The later performance gate requires positive strategy return, positive active return, no worse drawdown, and Calmar at least equal to the benchmark.

Preliminary / not a promotion claim

Prospective evidence

Empty evidence is shown as —, never +0%.

Strategy net return

+0.00%

Liquidation-adjusted modeled NAV from the prospective epoch.

Benchmark net return

-2.71%

50/50 BTC/ETH, same entry, exit, and funding assumptions.

Active return

+2.71%

Strategy return minus benchmark return.

Strategy max drawdown

0.00%

Peak-to-trough prospective modeled drawdown.

Benchmark max drawdown

2.71%

Same-window benchmark peak-to-trough drawdown.

Calmar / benchmark

— / -31.91

Annualized return divided by maximum drawdown.

Current prospective state

BTCUSD: FLAT
ETHUSD: FLAT
Strategy NAV: 1.000
Benchmark NAV: 0.973

Ledger integrity

pass

Verified rows: 6
Latest commit: 2026-08-15T00:00:58.314Z

Recent append-only snapshots

Newest first. Each row commits both symbols as one hash-chained portfolio observation.

UTC bar	BTC / ETH close	Transitions	Positions	Strategy / benchmark NAV	Row hash
2026-08-14	63,043.56 / 1,882.20	— / —	FLAT / FLAT	1.000 / 0.973	6956ee407c28…
2026-08-13	63,490.86 / 1,886.15	— / —	FLAT / FLAT	1.000 / 0.978	0a47dfa749e3…
2026-08-12	63,479.99 / 1,879.81	— / —	FLAT / FLAT	1.000 / 0.976	ca89b195eed8…
2026-08-11	63,600.00 / 1,882.59	— / —	FLAT / FLAT

Frozen protocol and evidence boundaries

Version: d1-slow-gate-v1-2026-08-09
Rule: close above EMA200, long/flat
OHLCV source: binance
Rule SHA-256: a9c222a33f3e1e0c70e8fb5f0bfa930dc6433297d9dcb27ef2b825f08da3b171
Artifact SHA-256: 1a6b28e47f218fafd5134cb257e06f966f881bc5154be92135c06867f5026e90

Losing observed archive Retrospective studies Raw ledger JSON Predeclared protocol